Adam Oliensis - Warnings
On a couple of strange and interesting notes, we should beware what happens if/when the P/D on the 10-yr Treasury crosses below 20. (Say, if dollar weakness precipitates flight from US Treasuries.) We may well see 1) a falling E (F52W EPS expectations) as interest-rate costs eat into corporate earnings and consumer demand (liquidity), or 2) multiple contraction owing to higher inflation. And if we get a combination of a falling E and a contracting multiple, then the markets could hit a nasty air pocket that media pundits will be hard-pressed to explain in real time. So, let's be forewarned and forearmed for that possibility.
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Will the next wave of the bear market hit soon? Why are so many of the investment advisors I read targetting 1260-1280 on SPY as the peak. Whatever reason if we get there I will have made enough money for the year and will revert to risk free calls on the few postions I hold.


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